Yesterday, the president announced that “together with our allies and partners, has reached a historic understanding with Iran, which, if fully implemented, will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
As I prepare to sit down with family and friends for our seder meals, I don’t know what to feel. Part of me wants to feel some sense of joy or relief. The leaders of the strongest nations on the planet, each with different and competing agendas for their own place in the world, came together united to prevent Iran from developing the most fearsome weapon humanity has devised or known. The Council on Foreign Relations’ Michael Levi wrote that “The nuclear limits – particularly those on the Iranian supply chain – are surprisingly strong and significant.”
William J. Burns, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and former deputy secretary of state summed up the challenge facing negotiators. “In a perfect world,” he wrote, “there would be no nuclear enrichment in Iran, and its existing enrichment facilities would be dismantled. But we don’t live in a perfect world. We can’t wish or bomb away the basic know-how and enrichment capability that Iran has developed. What we can do is sharply constrain it over a long duration, monitor it with unprecedented intrusiveness, and prevent the Iranian leadership from enriching material to weapons grade and building a bomb.”
There has been much commentary as to whether such an arms control scheme can work. Will Iran try to deceive the monitors? Will such monitoring effectively prevent Iran from moving forward on their designs toward a nuclear weapon? At the AIPAC conference in early March, I heard Ambassador Brad Gordon remind us that inspectors are just that: inspectors. Even if their inspections turn up evidence that Iran has decided to break provisions of the agreement, what can they do? How fast can the world’s leaders come together to address that eventuality? It took years of careful diplomacy and negotiations to impose the sanctions regime that brought Iran to the table. How long would it take to impose such sanctions again, and how long would it take for their effects to be felt in Tehran?
We are not fortune tellers, sooth-sayers, or clairvoyant prophets with a crystal ball into the future. We will have to see what the deal looks like with meat on its bones. For example, as Michael Levi writes, it is unclear how Iran will reduce its stockpile of Low Enriched Uranium from 10,000 kg to 300 kg. “Will Iran ship the material out of country? Will it blend it down to LEU that’s enriched to less than 3.67 percent? Will it convert the LEU into fuel?” It is also unclear as to the pace and method of sanctions relief. Which sanctions will be removed first? How quickly will Iran’s economy realize the benefits from normalizing its banking relationships and energy sales?
But what worries me more, frankly, is what happens next. Iran used its nuclear ambition to gain economic concessions from the west. We have already seen that despite the pressures and constraints on Iran’s economy, they have still found the resources and willingness to project what Prime Minister Netanyahu aptly described as “tentacles of terror” throughout the region. Iran projects power into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and now Yemen. Despite UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the complete disarmament of militia groups in Lebanon, Iran has armed Hizbullah with what some claim is an arsenal of nearly 100,000 missiles.
In 2006, Hizbullah launched more than 4,000 missiles at Israel. It is estimated that Hizbullah now has double the arsenal, and according to Col. Aviram Hasson, Iran is a “train engine that is not stopping for a moment. It is manufacturing new and advanced ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. It is turning unguided rockets that had an accuracy range of kilometers into weapons that are accurate to within meters.”
Iran’s military continues to state its goal of “wiping Israel off the map”. According to a Kol Yisrael report, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, head of Iran’s volunteer Basij Force, reaffirmed during a recent conference the goal of Israel’s destruction is non-negotiable. Can Iran achieve this goal? No. Israel is too strong and possesses its own nuclear threat.
But the nuclear threat does not completely deter aggression. Despite America’s massive nuclear capability, we still have fought wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan that have claimed the lives of tens of thousands of American soldiers, and hundreds of thousands of lives in the war zones themselves. Even without nuclear capability, Iran has used its proxies to project its power throughout the region.
There are many countries in the world who possess the technology Iran seeks to hold who do not have a nuclear bomb. Canada produces 16 percent of its electricity with nuclear power, but possesses no nuclear weapon. Spain produces nearly 20 percent of its electricity with nuclear power, but possesses no nuclear weapon. And of all the countries in the world whom you would expect to want a nuclear weapon, since they alone have experienced the horror of what those weapons can impose, Japan possesses no nuclear weapon.
The New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof wrote on Wednesday that he believes that this agreement may help create “the conditions for Iran to become a normal country.” But I can’t help thinking that normal countries do not threaten to wipe others off the map.
The biggest problem with the deal is that it fails to address the underlying real threat that Iran represents, which is a desire to foment belligerency, extremism, and war throughout a region over which it seeks to expand its hegemony. A “good deal” would not simply have blocked all paths for Iran to build a nuclear bomb, but would have blocked all paths for Iran to pursue its hegemonic aims. A good deal would have tied sanctions relief to Iran pulling back its weaponization and military support for proxies like Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hizbullah.
Sadly, the real threat that Iran poses to Israel and the region is only bolstered now by the billions of dollars Iran will eventually realize from sanctions relief. Iran has strategically used its investment in nuclear technology to strengthen its position to project its power into a region that has much to fear from it.
I wish I could look at the framework for the agreement with Iran and say, “Dayenu – it’s enough for us.” Sadly, I don’t really think it is. But the Holy One did not stop with taking us out of Egypt. It wasn’t enough. We needed the sea to split for us, we needed to be satisfied in the desert, we needed Shabbat and to be led to Mount Sinai. I pray that the Holy One will continue to help us be defended from our enemies, and that we will soon open the door for Elijah to see the blessings of peace fill our homes and the world we all share.
 “Five Thoughts on the Iran Nuclear Agreement” by Micahel Levi. Council on Foreign Relations, April 2, 2015.
 “The Fruits of Diplomacy With Iran” by William J. Burns. The Washington Post, April 3, 2015.
 “Iran Is Placing Guided Warheads on Hezbollah Rockets” by Yaakov Lapin. The Jerusalem Post, March 31, 2015
 “A Nuclear Deal With Iran Is Not Just About Bombs” by Nicholas Kristof. The New York Times, April 1, 2015.
4 responses to “The Framework With Iran – Dayenu?”
Dan, great piece. But the most likely outcome is one similar to the story with North Korea, which years ago entered into similar agreements with no intention of abiding by them. This is the point made by Daniel Henniger in his article in the WSJ yesterday: http://www.wsj.com/articles/dan-henninger-why-the-iran-deal-is-irrelevant-1427930123
Can’t thank you enough for helping me get educated. Your wisdom and insights are amazing. Looking forward to reading more from you and your followers.
I totally agree with you, As much as I would like to believe and have faith that Iran can be moderated and use its nuclear capacity for good, it has shown that all of its intentions have been for evil purposes when it comes to countries and people whose beliefs are different form theirs. Whether with nuclear orconventional methods they have shown no willingness to pursue peace.
Thanks Dan for your keen insights. I share your doubt, however sanctions didn’t prevent Iranian belligerency or their attempts to weaponize plutonium. You don’t enter negotiations like this with nations you trust. I hope that skepticism is worked into any potential agreement.